| Through just five or six intermediaries, you could be | | | | the network was neither entirely regular nor utterly |
| linked to millions of others. It is the notion behind what | | | | random. They expected the number of handshakes |
| has been dubbed the small world effect.It has happed | | | | needed to link people to drop as the random links |
| to most of us, and it's virtually guaranteed to happen at | | | | grew.But what they discovered was startling: just a |
| again - especially if you attend a social gathering. | | | | tiny number of random links was enough to |
| Whenever you have people eager to talk with one | | | | "short-circuit" an otherwise huge, regular network, |
| another, the chances are that some will find that they | | | | allowing apparently unrelated friends to be linked in just |
| have friends and acquaintances in common. It is, as | | | | a few handshakes.The computer revealed how easy |
| they say, a small world.It may be a common enough | | | | it is to turn even a vast network into a small world: if |
| experience, but the so-called small world effect is | | | | only one in 100 people have a random link to anyone |
| turning out to have some pretty big consequences. In | | | | else in the network, the average number of |
| the last 18 months it has become one of the hottest | | | | handshakes drops ten-fold.THEY ARE |
| subjects in science. Now some believe it could | | | | EVERYWHEREBut computer simulations are one |
| revolutionize the way we think about everything from | | | | thing; can small worlds be created so easily in the real |
| economic crashes to globalization.The story of how an | | | | one? Watts and Strogatz set about searching for a |
| apparently trivial social phenomenon turned out to have | | | | huge real-life network that they could probe for signs |
| far from trivial implications has its origins in a bizarre | | | | of the small world effect. They found the perfect, if |
| experiment carried out over 30 years ago by | | | | unlikely, example in the Internet Movie Database, a |
| psychologist Stanley Milgram.Milgram was trying to | | | | computer searchable catalogue with the names of |
| uncover the connections that lurk in our networks of | | | | over 200,000 actors and the films they have appeared |
| friends and acquaintances, and hit upon a novel way | | | | in.Analyzing the database, Watts and Strogatz found |
| of revealing them. He recruited people in various US | | | | that the typical actor has worked with around 60 |
| states and sent each of them a package, together | | | | others. If the showbiz network were completely |
| with some instructions.These revealed that the | | | | regular, with no random short-circuits, that figure would |
| packages were actually intended to two people picked | | | | imply that you'd typically have to go through 1,800 other |
| by Milgram, who gave their names and some vague | | | | actors and their films to link one actor to another. Yet |
| clues about where they lived, their occupation and age. | | | | the computer showed that it is possible to link any |
| What he did not give, however, was a precise postal | | | | actor to any other via just three intermediaries. The |
| address. The participants were then told to send the | | | | vast movie business is really a small world.In fact, this |
| packages to whichever of their acquaintances they | | | | had been known for years by movie buffs who play |
| judged most likely to know the targets personally and | | | | the so-called Kevin Bacon Game. The aim of the |
| be able to make the final delivery.Keeping track of the | | | | game is to link the eponymous American actor to any |
| postings, Milgram made the stunning discovery that the | | | | other via the fewest number of intermediaries.Players |
| packages typically reached the two target people | | | | were often struck by how often they could answer |
| after passing through the hands of just five other | | | | with the names of very few actors. For example, |
| people. Later experiments produced similar results, | | | | Bacon can be linked to Charlie Chaplin in just three |
| making the conclusion inevitable. It seems that, on | | | | steps: Bacon played in a film with Laurence Fishburn, |
| average, everyone in America from arms dealer to | | | | who in turn was in a film with Marlon Brando, who |
| zoo keeper can be connected to everyone else via a | | | | himself once appeared with Chaplin.Watts and |
| chain of just five or six intermediaries.It is a result that | | | | Strogatz had confirmed what many players suspected |
| becomes more bizarre the more you think about it. | | | | was the explanation: the "short-circuiting" effect of a |
| Sociologists estimate that we each typically have | | | | handful of actors whose careers span different eras, |
| around 300 or so acquaintances - people we're on | | | | genres and cultures. For example, by starring in both |
| first-name terms with. That suggests we're just one | | | | Lethal Weapon and Hamlet, Mel Gibson short-circuits |
| hand-shake (or email) away from 300 people, two | | | | the all-action and classical genres, while martial arts |
| away from 90,000, three away from 27 million and so | | | | actor Bruce Lee links the Chinese film industry to |
| on.Viewed this way, the real surprise about Milgram's | | | | Hollywood.The world of showbiz is now recognized as |
| research is that it takes as many as five or six | | | | a classical small world. That is, it is made up of lots of |
| handshakes to connect every American to every | | | | little cliques of actors, most of whom stay in their own |
| other. An average of just four should suffice to | | | | patch of the industry, mixed in with a few highly |
| connect up to 250 millions inhabitants of the US.But | | | | versatile ones with random links right across the acting |
| there is a big assumption in this quick calculation: that | | | | network who thus link every actor to every other via |
| our 300 friends are randomly spread throughout the | | | | very few steps.When Watts and Strogatz published |
| population so that every American is likely to know, | | | | their findings in the leading science journal Nature, it |
| say, Alan Greenspan as Al at the corner store. But the | | | | triggered an explosion of media coverage. But it also |
| fact is that our friends tend to fall into cliques: people | | | | sparked interest among academics in a diverse range |
| who have similar levels of education, interests and | | | | of fields, all wondering whether small world effects are |
| opinions.This, however, just makes Milgram's findings | | | | at work in their own patches.The corporate world |
| even more baffling: for if all our friends were confined | | | | does show signs of being under the influence of small |
| to such rigid cliques, we would hardly ever discover | | | | world effects, according to Bruce Kogut of the |
| we have friends in common. Each American, for | | | | Wharton School of Business at the University of |
| example, would then be separated by an average of | | | | Pennsylvania, and Gordon Walker at the Cox School |
| almost one million handshakes...250 million divided by | | | | of Business at the Southern Methodist University in |
| 300 from each other. By that reckoning, Milgram should | | | | Texas.Kogut and Walker applied Watts and Strogatz's |
| have died long before any of his packages reached | | | | methods to the ownership networks spanning over |
| their targets.There is clearly something odd going on | | | | 500 of Germany's biggest corporations. Predictably, |
| here. Our networks of friends are not randomly | | | | they found lots of cliques in the ownership of firms, the |
| spread across society. Yet they still allow us to be | | | | result of various tie-ups and mergers. But they also |
| linked to each other via few intermediaries, so that we | | | | found that the short-circuiting effect of a few |
| often end up discovering "It's a small world". How do | | | | corporations typically allowed the ownership of any |
| they do it?It was this that intrigued Duncan Watts, in | | | | one firm to be linked to any other via just four |
| 1996 still a graduate at Cornell University. Watts had | | | | intermediaries. In other words, for all their diversity, |
| been working on a nice, solid doctorate about the | | | | Germany's biggest firms actually form a cosy small |
| chirps of lovelorn crickets. But he had run into a | | | | world.This explains why firms with apparently tenuous |
| problem: how do the crickets fall into step so quickly? | | | | links to one another can still show similar corporate |
| Was each listening to all his fellow crickets, or just to | | | | behavior. But it may also have implications for the way |
| his closest neighbors?Then Watts remembered a | | | | these companies deal with globalization.Small world |
| funny bit of folklore that his father had told him: that | | | | theory shows it only takes a few random links to |
| every American is just a few handshakes away from | | | | short-circuit a vast network. So it's likely that the whole |
| knowing the president of the United States. Watts | | | | corporate world has already become a small |
| wondered if there was a connection between this | | | | world.The study of small worlds is still in its infancy, yet |
| apparent bit of folklore and the problem he was trying | | | | it is already clear that their presence holds both |
| to solve and perhaps many others too.Watts | | | | benefits and threats. Economists and business studies |
| expected his idea would be ridiculed by his advisor, | | | | experts are likely to reveal many more examples of |
| Steve Strogatz at Cornell's department of theoretical | | | | small worlds and their implications in the years |
| and applied mechanics. Instead, Stogatz also fell under | | | | ahead.Selling on eBay and the Internet is still a relatively |
| the spell of the big mystery of the small world effect, | | | | a new phenomenon with unprecedented opportunity. |
| and the two joined forces to try and solve it.They | | | | Adam Ginsberg, recently featured on NBC's Today |
| began by using a computer to create lots of networks | | | | Show is an author and educator and has built a small |
| of virtual "friends", and measuring how many | | | | fortune selling on eBay. As an early Internet pioneer, |
| "handshakes" were needed to connect one friend to | | | | Adam discovered a system for generating wealth - |
| another in a totally different part of the network.At one | | | | through the power of the eBay marketplace.Adam |
| extreme were the utterly regular networks, where | | | | personally sold over $20,000,000 on eBay and the |
| every friend only knows those right next to them. | | | | Internet in the last three years. Currently he travels the |
| Devoid of any long range connections capable of | | | | world sharing his knowledge, expertise and experience |
| linking, say, Bill Clinton to some store-keep in Hawaii, | | | | with others. Adam's book, "How to Buy, Sell & Profit |
| these networks typically demanded lots of | | | | on eBay", went to #1 on Amazon within 3 days of |
| handshakes before one person could be connected to | | | | being released. Learn how Adam has solved the |
| another. Right at the other extreme were totally | | | | mystery of success on eBay and how you can apply |
| random networks, where people were just as likely to | | | | his system to capitalize on this hot new money making |
| have personal friends in the White House as in | | | | opportunity. Adam has also created several best |
| Hawaiian stores.Watts and Strogatz were intrigued by | | | | selling e-books and software to enable you to |
| what happened between these two extremes, when | | | | enhance your ability to succeed. |