| Through just five or six intermediaries, you | | | | what happened between these two extremes, |
| could be linked to millions of others. It is | | | | when the network was neither entirely regular |
| the notion behind what has been dubbed the | | | | nor utterly random. They expected the number |
| small world effect.It has happed to most of | | | | of handshakes needed to link people to drop |
| us, and it's virtually guaranteed to happen | | | | as the random links grew.But what they |
| at again - especially if you attend a social | | | | discovered was startling: just a tiny number |
| gathering. Whenever you have people eager to | | | | of random links was enough to "short-circuit" |
| talk with one another, the chances are that | | | | an otherwise huge, regular network, allowing |
| some will find that they have friends and | | | | apparently unrelated friends to be linked in |
| acquaintances in common. It is, as they say, | | | | just a few handshakes.The computer revealed |
| a small world.It may be a common enough | | | | how easy it is to turn even a vast network |
| experience, but the so-called small world | | | | into a small world: if only one in 100 people |
| effect is turning out to have some pretty big | | | | have a random link to anyone else in the |
| consequences. In the last 18 months it has | | | | network, the average number of handshakes |
| become one of the hottest subjects in | | | | drops ten-fold.THEY ARE EVERYWHEREBut |
| science. Now some believe it could | | | | computer simulations are one thing; can small |
| revolutionize the way we think about | | | | worlds be created so easily in the real one? |
| everything from economic crashes to | | | | Watts and Strogatz set about searching for a |
| globalization.The story of how an apparently | | | | huge real-life network that they could probe |
| trivial social phenomenon turned out to have | | | | for signs of the small world effect. They |
| far from trivial implications has its origins | | | | found the perfect, if unlikely, example in |
| in a bizarre experiment carried out over 30 | | | | the Internet Movie Database, a computer |
| years ago by psychologist Stanley | | | | searchable catalogue with the names of over |
| Milgram.Milgram was trying to uncover the | | | | 200,000 actors and the films they have |
| connections that lurk in our networks of | | | | appeared in.Analyzing the database, Watts and |
| friends and acquaintances, and hit upon a | | | | Strogatz found that the typical actor has |
| novel way of revealing them. He recruited | | | | worked with around 60 others. If the showbiz |
| people in various US states and sent each of | | | | network were completely regular, with no |
| them a package, together with some | | | | random short-circuits, that figure would |
| instructions.These revealed that the packages | | | | imply that you'd typically have to go through |
| were actually intended to two people picked | | | | 1,800 other actors and their films to link |
| by Milgram, who gave their names and some | | | | one actor to another. Yet the computer showed |
| vague clues about where they lived, their | | | | that it is possible to link any actor to any |
| occupation and age. What he did not give, | | | | other via just three intermediaries. The vast |
| however, was a precise postal address. The | | | | movie business is really a small world.In |
| participants were then told to send the | | | | fact, this had been known for years by movie |
| packages to whichever of their acquaintances | | | | buffs who play the so-called Kevin Bacon |
| they judged most likely to know the targets | | | | Game. The aim of the game is to link the |
| personally and be able to make the final | | | | eponymous American actor to any other via the |
| delivery.Keeping track of the postings, | | | | fewest number of intermediaries.Players were |
| Milgram made the stunning discovery that the | | | | often struck by how often they could answer |
| packages typically reached the two target | | | | with the names of very few actors. For |
| people after passing through the hands of | | | | example, Bacon can be linked to Charlie |
| just five other people. Later experiments | | | | Chaplin in just three steps: Bacon played in |
| produced similar results, making the | | | | a film with Laurence Fishburn, who in turn |
| conclusion inevitable. It seems that, on | | | | was in a film with Marlon Brando, who himself |
| average, everyone in America from arms dealer | | | | once appeared with Chaplin.Watts and Strogatz |
| to zoo keeper can be connected to everyone | | | | had confirmed what many players suspected was |
| else via a chain of just five or six | | | | the explanation: the "short-circuiting" |
| intermediaries.It is a result that becomes | | | | effect of a handful of actors whose careers |
| more bizarre the more you think about it. | | | | span different eras, genres and cultures. For |
| Sociologists estimate that we each typically | | | | example, by starring in both Lethal Weapon |
| have around 300 or so acquaintances - people | | | | and Hamlet, Mel Gibson short-circuits the |
| we're on first-name terms with. That suggests | | | | all-action and classical genres, while |
| we're just one hand-shake (or email) away | | | | martial arts actor Bruce Lee links the |
| from 300 people, two away from 90,000, three | | | | Chinese film industry to Hollywood.The world |
| away from 27 million and so on.Viewed this | | | | of showbiz is now recognized as a classical |
| way, the real surprise about Milgram's | | | | small world. That is, it is made up of lots |
| research is that it takes as many as five or | | | | of little cliques of actors, most of whom |
| six handshakes to connect every American to | | | | stay in their own patch of the industry, |
| every other. An average of just four should | | | | mixed in with a few highly versatile ones |
| suffice to connect up to 250 millions | | | | with random links right across the acting |
| inhabitants of the US.But there is a big | | | | network who thus link every actor to every |
| assumption in this quick calculation: that | | | | other via very few steps.When Watts and |
| our 300 friends are randomly spread | | | | Strogatz published their findings in the |
| throughout the population so that every | | | | leading science journal Nature, it triggered |
| American is likely to know, say, Alan | | | | an explosion of media coverage. But it also |
| Greenspan as Al at the corner store. But the | | | | sparked interest among academics in a diverse |
| fact is that our friends tend to fall into | | | | range of fields, all wondering whether small |
| cliques: people who have similar levels of | | | | world effects are at work in their own |
| education, interests and opinions.This, | | | | patches.The corporate world does show signs |
| however, just makes Milgram's findings even | | | | of being under the influence of small world |
| more baffling: for if all our friends were | | | | effects, according to Bruce Kogut of the |
| confined to such rigid cliques, we would | | | | Wharton School of Business at the University |
| hardly ever discover we have friends in | | | | of Pennsylvania, and Gordon Walker at the Cox |
| common. Each American, for example, would | | | | School of Business at the Southern Methodist |
| then be separated by an average of almost one | | | | University in Texas.Kogut and Walker applied |
| million handshakes...250 million divided by | | | | Watts and Strogatz's methods to the ownership |
| 300 from each other. By that reckoning, | | | | networks spanning over 500 of Germany's |
| Milgram should have died long before any of | | | | biggest corporations. Predictably, they found |
| his packages reached their targets.There is | | | | lots of cliques in the ownership of firms, |
| clearly something odd going on here. Our | | | | the result of various tie-ups and mergers. |
| networks of friends are not randomly spread | | | | But they also found that the short-circuiting |
| across society. Yet they still allow us to be | | | | effect of a few corporations typically |
| linked to each other via few intermediaries, | | | | allowed the ownership of any one firm to be |
| so that we often end up discovering "It's a | | | | linked to any other via just four |
| small world". How do they do it?It was this | | | | intermediaries. In other words, for all their |
| that intrigued Duncan Watts, in 1996 still a | | | | diversity, Germany's biggest firms actually |
| graduate at Cornell University. Watts had | | | | form a cosy small world.This explains why |
| been working on a nice, solid doctorate about | | | | firms with apparently tenuous links to one |
| the chirps of lovelorn crickets. But he had | | | | another can still show similar corporate |
| run into a problem: how do the crickets fall | | | | behavior. But it may also have implications |
| into step so quickly? Was each listening to | | | | for the way these companies deal with |
| all his fellow crickets, or just to his | | | | globalization.Small world theory shows it |
| closest neighbors?Then Watts remembered a | | | | only takes a few random links to |
| funny bit of folklore that his father had | | | | short-circuit a vast network. So it's likely |
| told him: that every American is just a few | | | | that the whole corporate world has already |
| handshakes away from knowing the president of | | | | become a small world.The study of small |
| the United States. Watts wondered if there | | | | worlds is still in its infancy, yet it is |
| was a connection between this apparent bit of | | | | already clear that their presence holds both |
| folklore and the problem he was trying to | | | | benefits and threats. Economists and business |
| solve and perhaps many others too.Watts | | | | studies experts are likely to reveal many |
| expected his idea would be ridiculed by his | | | | more examples of small worlds and their |
| advisor, Steve Strogatz at Cornell's | | | | implications in the years ahead.Selling on |
| department of theoretical and applied | | | | eBay and the Internet is still a relatively a |
| mechanics. Instead, Stogatz also fell under | | | | new phenomenon with unprecedented |
| the spell of the big mystery of the small | | | | opportunity. Adam Ginsberg, recently |
| world effect, and the two joined forces to | | | | featured on NBC's Today Show is an author and |
| try and solve it.They began by using a | | | | educator and has built a small fortune |
| computer to create lots of networks of | | | | selling on eBay. As an early Internet |
| virtual "friends", and measuring how many | | | | pioneer, Adam discovered a system for |
| "handshakes" were needed to connect one | | | | generating wealth - through the power of the |
| friend to another in a totally different part | | | | eBay marketplace.Adam personally sold over |
| of the network.At one extreme were the | | | | $20,000,000 on eBay and the Internet in the |
| utterly regular networks, where every friend | | | | last three years. Currently he travels the |
| only knows those right next to them. Devoid | | | | world sharing his knowledge, expertise and |
| of any long range connections capable of | | | | experience with others. Adam's book, "How to |
| linking, say, Bill Clinton to some store-keep | | | | Buy, Sell & Profit on eBay", went to #1 on |
| in Hawaii, these networks typically demanded | | | | Amazon within 3 days of being released. Learn |
| lots of handshakes before one person could be | | | | how Adam has solved the mystery of success on |
| connected to another. Right at the other | | | | eBay and how you can apply his system to |
| extreme were totally random networks, where | | | | capitalize on this hot new money making |
| people were just as likely to have personal | | | | opportunity. Adam has also created several |
| friends in the White House as in Hawaiian | | | | best selling e-books and software to enable |
| stores.Watts and Strogatz were intrigued by | | | | you to enhance your ability to succeed. |