| I never was a fan of the Miss Cleo and the Psychic | | | | 3) Trade on interactivity. Exchanging free |
| Readers Network. I found it improbable you could | | | | content for ad views and filling out surveys is |
| gather hundreds of authentic psychics to man the | | | | ubiquitous online. But cable, satellite, and the telcos have |
| phones at 2 AM every night. | | | | yet to get into this business in a big way. |
| Nevertheless, in 1996, as I was finishing my book, The | | | | Prediction: Half of the major infomercial direct |
| Complete Guide to Informercial Marketing, I channeled | | | | marketers will go out of business, be acquired, or be |
| a bit of Miss Cleo, and boldly titled the final chapter | | | | forced to adapt. I might have been a tad aggressive |
| "The Future of Infomercials," wherein I prophesized | | | | on this one; sure National Media, ITV, Good Times, Don |
| advertising's future… in 2010. Who knew, 14 years | | | | Lapre and Carleton Sheets, among others, are long |
| later, I'd still be DRTV-bound and called to account as | | | | gone from the air waves. But Guthy-Renker, |
| 2010 rushed in (whatever happened to the | | | | TELEbrands, Ronco, Tristar, Time-Life, Ontel, Fitness |
| "Naughties?"). | | | | Quest, Ideavillage and small elite groups still survive, |
| How'd I fare? Certainly better than an NFL pregame | | | | joined by robust new companies like Beachbody, Euro |
| crew, but probably worse than Albus Dumbledore. | | | | Pro, Allstar and others. But "forced to adapt" – bulls |
| My Crystal Ball Was Crystal Clear…. | | | | eye. |
| Prediction: Infomercial media time will increase, as will | | | | Not Wrong, Just Ahead Of My Time …. |
| costs. This was a slam dunk. For proof, scan your | | | | Prediction: The days of intrusive advertising and the |
| electronic program guide (EPG) on any night or | | | | short-form commercial may soon be numbered. |
| weekend day; cable net and digital sub-channel | | | | Thirty-second spots still remain in heavy rotation, but |
| proliferation has spawned legions of infomercial time | | | | information-rich two-minute DR spots now dominate |
| periods. But those wondrous $50 half-hours of yore | | | | many cable networks, branded entertainment/product |
| are gone. | | | | placement is growing dramatically, and five-to-15 |
| Prediction: Electronic marketing sales will probably grow | | | | second pre-rolls are becoming standard on the Net. |
| from $5 billion to more than $20 billion in the next 10 | | | | Prediction: Advertisers will turn to chapter formats to |
| years alone. The Electronic Retailing Association (ERA) | | | | deliver product information. Click here, click online, |
| claims it has grown to over $400 billion—but, hey, I've | | | | videos play, sales incline. While not yet a TV staple, |
| never agreed with its calculation. I think I hit this one | | | | satellite and cable providers have rolled out |
| on the nose: $20 billion is about right for the | | | | first-generation interactive "chapter" campaigns for |
| one-step-offer DRTV business, including internet and | | | | visionaries like Nike. |
| retail sales, and live TV home shopping. | | | | If Being A Seer Was Easy, I'd Have Invented The |
| Prediction: Consumer control of advertising impressions | | | | Snuggie…. |
| will be the hallmark of interactive television. Ad | | | | Prediction: We will see growing numbers of |
| aversion is a plague on and off line. In the TV world, | | | | multi-product infomercials. Maybe I imagined more |
| DVRs and skip buttons accommodate | | | | major advertisers would be using long-form advertising |
| commercial-aversive behaviors even better than | | | | for branding, for which multi-product formatting can be |
| channel-hopping TV remotes and fast-forwarding | | | | very effective. Not there yet by a long shot. |
| VCRs ever did. To reel viewers back in, I predicted | | | | Prediction: In 2010, infomercials will be the preferred |
| three responses: | | | | advertising mode. In a time when online advertising is all |
| 1) Reward viewers' attention. We regularly see | | | | about analytics, it's shocking that marketing directors |
| limited-time offers. Online, product coupons and | | | | don't regularly execute TV campaigns capable of |
| discounts will become even more plentiful. | | | | delivering the same accountability. But two-minute |
| 2) Target consumers individually. Online | | | | "mini-infomercials" have gained mainstream momentum, |
| advertising's biggest differentiator – dynamic | | | | so I'm on the right track. |
| targeting – is also the driving force behind Big | | | | Still, given the revolutionary change in advertising these |
| Cable's Canoe project. The paddling's been slow, but | | | | days, I'm more convinced than ever – fortune tellers |
| the oars are in the water. Some companies are | | | | have no business in our business. |
| already delivering ads to specific zip codes. | | | | |